The Supreme Leader’s Final Word By Ali Younes Ali Khamenei the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution in Iran outlined the future course for Iran regarding the election crises in his Friday sermon this past weekend. Khamenei agreed to the election results and reiterated his support for incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad who officially won the election. Khamenei, in perhaps the most important speech of his career, also urged the Iranian people to stop their street protests and called on the opposition leaders to resort to the rule of law and the legal channels to look into their claims and warning them that the state will not hesitate to crackdown on those who incite violence. The widely anticipated Friday sermon came to address the aftermath of election crises in Iran when president Ahmedinejad was swiftly declared the winner triggering massive street protests. Hundreds of the thousands of Iranians have been staging street protests for a week claiming election fraud in support of the opposition candidates Mir Hossain Mussavi and Mahdi Karubi. In his constitutional position as the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, and the ultimate ruler of Iran, Khamenei has officially delivered the final word on this matter. Khamenei outlines in his speech three important issues. 1: He addressed the general public of the Iranian people praising their massive vote turn out as a great event in the history of the Islamic republic and a “manifestation of solidarity with the Islamic establishment” .Appealing to their common sense that” the Islamic republic of Iran will by no means betray the votes of the nation “and that it is virtually impossible to commit fraud on a large scale of rigging the votes of 20 million people. 2: Addressing the opposition leaders urging them to end their calls for protests and stop using the streets as a venue to contest the election results. 3: Western powers: Khamenei delivered an attack on European and particularly American officials of what he termed as “interferences” in Iranian elections by calling their concerns about Human Rights as hypocritical citing the US support for Israel against the Palestinians and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Khamenei speech came as no surprise to many Iran analysts who anticipated that the Supreme leader was highly unlikely to back down from his earlier endorsement of President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s win. He also left no doubts that another election is out of the question. That said however, Khamenei left a breathing room for the opposition in which they can contest the results but only through the legal channels and through partial vote recount and in accordance with recommendation of the Guardian Council which is set to investigate the opposition claims. Khamenei was conscious of the fact that the huge streets protests, the first ever in the history of the Islamic republic and the first ever in a presidential election, might set a dangerous precedent on the future of the Islamic Republic. He therefore appealed to the people’s common sense that their actions are not in the best interests of the country and this is a critical and sensitive phase the country is going through and labeling acts of violence and sabotage as ‘terrorist’s acts” Its worth noting that the massive street protests which resulted in the death of several protestors held several signs that read “death to the dictator” though. It is unclear who was meant by the word “dictator” here, given that Ahmedinejad is considered as a minor player in the Iranian political system despite his position as the president of the republic and as evident of his absence during the worse crises the country is facing since its inception, attending the Shanghai Summit. Khamenei is also conscious of the fact that there is an undercurrent of opposition to his own rule as a supreme leader on the grounds of his religious qualifications. The Iranian constitution stipulates that the Supreme leader must be a Grand Ayatollah” and Khamenei was not when assumed the leadership. Moreover, some in the opposition hinted this issue in a subtle ways, using coded terms such as “change” “and “amending the constitution” in order to limit the powers of the supreme leader or even abolishing the post. Young Iranians who are the backbone of the protests are demanding re-election and not just recount. According to many observers, the real catalyst for this massive turn out of protests is actually dire economic conditions and bleak future they are facing. Under president Ahmedinejad, inflation rose up to 24 percent, unemployment numbers increased, and Iranians saw their lot is not improving despite last summers surge in oil prices and huge increase in oil revenues. Worsening economic conditions are not entirely Ahmedinejad’s fault. Iran is still facing tough economic sanctions by the west, but Ahmedinejad had promised before he was elected that he will improve the economy. He did not. A very important aspect of the speech was Khamenei subtle criticism of Ahmedinejad for his harsh words toward Ali Akbar Hashemie Rafsanjani, the powerful former president, during the election campaign and is considered the real power behind Musavi. This gesture toward Rafsanjani, is a signal that the supreme leader is trying to win over Rafsanjani and convince him toward ending the crises and call off his support for the opposition. Many Iranian experts believe that Rafsanjani used his wealth to finance Musavi’s campaign through his many businesses and wealth. This gesture is a clever realpolitic by Khamenei who in his public endorsement and praise of Rafsanjani is attempting to drive a wedge between Rafsanjani and opposition leader Mussavi. Musavi who did not hold a public office in twenty years after his tenure as a prime minister ended in 1989 does not enjoy power or the wealth of Rafsanjani and has found a career in the past twenty years as an Artist and Painter in Tehran exhibiting his work in Tehran art galleries. Iranian opposition leaders and particularly Musavi and Karrubi are left with several choices to make. Their predicament is to either heed the supreme leader’s call by ending their street protests and use the legal channels instead, or defy the Supreme leader and continue calling their supporters out to the street which is highly unlikely due to the high risks of bloodshed against the protestors and the risk to their own lives if they were deemed by the government as inciting riots against the state. Mussavi and the opposition will in the mean time call their supporters to stay home and put off any confrontation with the government allowing back channels negotiatings to take its course before deciding to whether confront state head-on, which is highly unlikely or swallow defeat and move on which seems to be the case at this point. Ali Younes, is a writer and Middle East analyst based in Washington DC. He can be reached at ali.younes@charter.net