By: Ali Younes

President Obama’s visit to Saudi Arabia and Egypt is met in the Arab world with unprecedented wave of optimism and hope bordering on the fantasy and the ridiculous.

Seeking to showcase America’s new orientation toward the Middle East and its complicated problems, Obama is intending to give more than speeches of goodwill, and “we are not your enemy” and other kind words to his enthusiastic audience.

Obama is using the Saudi and Egyptian platform to announce his administration’s vision for an end to the conflict between Arabs and Israel over its occupation and the issue of establishing Palestinian state. We should not discount Obama’s goodwill and genuine desire to bring a peace in the region. That said however, the Obama administration finds it imperative to positively engage the Middle East and particularly the Arab-Israeli conflict in order to move on other thorny issues such as Iran and terrorism. More, It appears that a US administration has finally realized that vital US interests in the region requires it to take serious measures, among them pressure Israel to stop its illegal settlement building on Palestinian lands.

Obama is offering the Arabs and Israelis during this visit his vision of a “Palestinian state living side by side with Israel in peace and security” This is of course a wonderful goal, Arab states have stated that it is part of their plan to normalize relations with Israel in exchange for a Palestinian state on 1967 borders. Palestinians are seeking an independent state as culmination of their historic struggle, not as a mere requirement for Israeli security and demographic concerns.

The question is however; would Israel go along with it? Its hard to say. Thus far, Israeli prime minster Benjamin Netanyahu is none committal. Israeli leaders across the political spectrum are refusing to relent to US demands to freeze settlement building.

But like everything else in politics this could change and agreements requires compromises from all sides.

Compromises however depend on the balance of power, economic strength and political stability. Israel has the strongest economy in the region; its economy is bigger than the entire Arab World economy, without Oil. Arabs are numbering 300 million people comparing with six million Israelis. Militarily Israel is by far has the strongest Army in the Middle East and the only true fighting force in the region by NATO standards, and according to reports, has over 200 nuclear bombs. Israel also has a vibrant political system that worked well for many years and has a large pool of leaders that rotate power in an orderly fashion.

Arab states and particularly the Palestinians on the other hand have none of the above. They cannot compete with Israel individually over any of these categories and it does not look like that they can form a collective vision and a front that will deal with Israel on equal footing, either military or economically. The balance of power, therefore, will dictate the level of compromises and the nature of any future settlement that will come out of negotiatings.

There is no strategic balance between Arabs and Israel, and because Israel is the dominant power and the strongest state in the region, it is unlikely it will relent or compromise in a way that will be minimally satisfactory to the Palestinians. Moreover,Arab States are inherently weak vis-à-vis Israel and feel powerless facing Israel’s aggressive posture and dominant military. As a result, Arab states expect too much from president Obama and treat him almost as if he is their savior and their deliverer.

Ali Younes is a writer and Middle East analyst based in Washington DC. He can be reached at : ali.younes@charter.net